Every selectee has curiosity about interview date and further process. They used to ask AM I SAFE or NOT? No body can say 100% that your are safe. It is only in the hand of KCC that how many visas they release and embassy which conduct interview. These two organization can finalize that which case number is safe. Among them KCC (Kentucky) handle all process of DV lottery. Embassy just helps KCC by conducting interview. So here I am explaining you how to identify whether you are safe or not.
1. CASE DENSITY:-
Remember all years are different than previous years. It doesn't matter how many people were issued in previous year. You used to supposed that in 2015 people up-to 7150 from Nepal were current and hope this year same. It is totally bad analysis. So first thing is to see the total selected of Nepal and then case density(up-to where cases spread). Because if the case density is low it means that cases spread up to high number and it is high then cases spread up to least number. For example in FY 2015 Nepali cases are upto 9000+ while in 2016 Nepali cases spread up to 7100 only.
2. DERIVATIVE RATE:-
Actually derivative means family member included with principal applicant. Suppose if husband was selected for further processing then his wife and son/daughter are called derivative. So the derivative rate differ in each year. For example in FY 2016 derivative rate is 1.8-1.9 which means that 1 case is equal to two visa(nearly). Now come to the point if the derivative rate increase then more visa are used so the chances for higher case number decreases. It may vary in each part of the case for example. From 1 to 2000, the rate is 1.8 then it may changes from 2000 to 4000 or may remain constant.
3. HOLES
Many of you people do not know the hole theory but here i am explaining about that. The gap between the cases during the draw are called holes. For example 2016AS123, 2016AS128 in this example there are no cases for 24,25,26,27 which mean 4 holes are there. These holes are also important factor in dv lottery.
4. RESPONSE RATE
Response rate means the rate of people who responses their cases and fill their ds 260 form in early time. Some country or region like Iran(in Asia), Africa they have not more than 60% response but in country like Nepal 10% people do not response due to the agent who are terrifically working. So the response rate is high in Nepal. What happens if response rate is low? If the response rate is low then higher cases people chances increase for current.
5. NUMBER OF SELECTEE:-
This is another factor that play vital role in dv lottery. If the selectee from your region is less then maximum people get chances for interview. For example, in 2015 total selectee were 140000(approx), 2014(125000), 2016 (90000). Less number of selectee less people will be disappointing.
1. CASE DENSITY:-
Remember all years are different than previous years. It doesn't matter how many people were issued in previous year. You used to supposed that in 2015 people up-to 7150 from Nepal were current and hope this year same. It is totally bad analysis. So first thing is to see the total selected of Nepal and then case density(up-to where cases spread). Because if the case density is low it means that cases spread up to high number and it is high then cases spread up to least number. For example in FY 2015 Nepali cases are upto 9000+ while in 2016 Nepali cases spread up to 7100 only.
2. DERIVATIVE RATE:-
Actually derivative means family member included with principal applicant. Suppose if husband was selected for further processing then his wife and son/daughter are called derivative. So the derivative rate differ in each year. For example in FY 2016 derivative rate is 1.8-1.9 which means that 1 case is equal to two visa(nearly). Now come to the point if the derivative rate increase then more visa are used so the chances for higher case number decreases. It may vary in each part of the case for example. From 1 to 2000, the rate is 1.8 then it may changes from 2000 to 4000 or may remain constant.
3. HOLES
Many of you people do not know the hole theory but here i am explaining about that. The gap between the cases during the draw are called holes. For example 2016AS123, 2016AS128 in this example there are no cases for 24,25,26,27 which mean 4 holes are there. These holes are also important factor in dv lottery.
4. RESPONSE RATE
Response rate means the rate of people who responses their cases and fill their ds 260 form in early time. Some country or region like Iran(in Asia), Africa they have not more than 60% response but in country like Nepal 10% people do not response due to the agent who are terrifically working. So the response rate is high in Nepal. What happens if response rate is low? If the response rate is low then higher cases people chances increase for current.
5. NUMBER OF SELECTEE:-
This is another factor that play vital role in dv lottery. If the selectee from your region is less then maximum people get chances for interview. For example, in 2015 total selectee were 140000(approx), 2014(125000), 2016 (90000). Less number of selectee less people will be disappointing.
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